Iran 2006: Be afraid...Be very afraid

January 12, 2006

I hope Dean doesn't mind if I reproduce this post completely:

Things Are Getting Very Very Weird In Iran

...and not in a good way. Yet most people seem not to notice or care. But the UN has just confirmed that Iran broke the seals on the uranium enrichment plant, the President has been mentioning Iran with almost every public appearance (with no one seeming interested, bizarrely), the British Foreign secretary has recently said that Iran is "pushing their luck," with similar rumblings from the French and Germans. Regime Change Iran has an important news roundup with lots and lots of details.

I don't think people quite understand that we may well be at war with Iran before 2006 is out.

Even though I've posted the whole thing myself, the comments are definitely worth checking out.

For what it's worth, Murdoc doesn't think we'll be at war with Iran in 2006 unless our hand is forced. And I fully expect Israel to make the first move, possibly heading off any major conflict. So maybe a 25% chance that full-scale warfare erupts in the coming year. Maybe a bit higher, and maybe I'm clueless. Even so, that's still far too high for comfort, of course.

Meanwhile: Iran breaks seals; International Community Plans more Discourse

Here's Murdoc's ballpark guesstimates for Iran 2006:

  • Israel bombs Iranian nuclear facilities - 75% chance
  • US and close allies bomb Iranian nuclear facilities - 50% chance
  • Full-scale conventional warfare between US/close allies and Iran - 25% chance
  • Large coalition of nations bombs Iranian nuclear facilities - 10% chance
  • Full-scale warfare between large coalition of nations and Iran - 0% chance
  • Note that I've rated both options including a large international coalition (meaning more than just the US, UK, Australia, Poland, and Italy) to be less likely than a full-scale conventional war between the US (+close allies) and Iran. I'm not sure that, short of actually being attacked by Iranian nuclear weapons, most nations are interested in doing anything.

If things get nasty, however, at least we'll have military basing in all the right places. Funny how that works out sometimes.

posted by Murdoc - January 12, 2006 2:16 PM

From MURDOC ONLINE -- www.murdoconline.net