Catching bin Laden

There’s been a lot of talk about how we might know where Osama is and how there might be a big operation along the Pakistan border soon. There’s also been a lot of talk about how the capture of OBL might be “managed” by the Bush administration for maximum political effect. I get the feeling that whenever he’s caught, there’s going to be a general outcry of “politicization”.

So I’m taking a poll to attempt to determine what the window is to capture OBL without appearing to have staged it. Vote. Tell your friends. Let’s see what people think.

I will leave this up until at least May 1st. Remember, I predicted that we’d nab Osama in May. Get as many people as you can to participate. Please vote only once.

UPDATE: I imagine that a capture will be used by Bush’s opponents regardless of the date. And there’s no doubt that Bush will use a capture to drum up support. What I’m looking for is when YOU PERSONALLY will begin to suspect that it may not be credible. Thanks.


  1. Whether the capture will have appeared to be politicized will depend on two things. One, the party affilation of the beholder, and the backstory behind the capture. For some, no matter when bin Laden is captured, it will be a nefarious Rove-orchestrated plot designed to seduce the befuddled masses away from the clearly superior Democratic candidate. Others might think so if there is any indication that the intelligence services and armed forces had knowledge of his whereabouts for a significant length of time befoe the apprehension. How long ‘significant’ is will again likely depend on party affiliation. Absent that kind of information, I think most people will assume that we just caught him. The only capture date after which a majority of the public would wonder if it had been stage managed would be in the month before the election. Indeed, it might almost be better to intentionally capture him after the election. So I voted for Oct 1; but for many on the left, it will be anytime after right now.

  2. Only if he is caught after the election, will it not look political. Even then, Macaulife will claim his capture was delayed for political gain!

  3. Somebody should Bitch Slap you. Osama Bin Laden killed 3000 wonderful people and you’re trying to be cute about his arrest? If you don’t understand why you’ve gone too far, I see no reason why reasoning with you might help.

  4. Ricky Vandal: The link to your Church of Fandel site is not working. I googled and found it, along with some other comments you’ve left on other sites. Interesting, to say the least. There’s no doubt that the politicians will be ‘cute’ with the capture of OBL, if it comes to pass. I’m trying to determine what people are willing to accept at face value and what people will dismiss as cuteness. Before the fact. After the fact, people will explain things in a way that supports their position. The key is to get a feel for the position BEFORE hindsight clouds everyone’s vision. Thanks for reading.

  5. If ObL is caught/found before the election, the ABB crowd will claim foul regardless of the facts. That being said, there is one scenerio I can see where the Administration ‘sits’ on info – If there are operatives within Al Qaeda, or means of reading their ‘mail’ that would be compromised by either capture or kill. This would be a tough sell to most Americans – especiallly with the ABB propoganda mills working so effectively. Pragmatically speaking, preventing further terrorist actions against US citizens and interests is as important as capturing ObL – perhaps more so…

  6. Murdoc said I imagine that a capture will be used by Bush’s opponents regardless of the date. ****** Does anyone doubt that W could raise the dead and his enemies would complain and say it was politically motivated?

  7. Can we can go all Roman after his capture and parade him in chains down the streets of NYC? No? Okay, then I vote we take him DEAD at a time and place of our choosing. We should also be sure to contact the governments of Kenya and Tanzania before the news is made public because they too have dead to avenge. Where’s the Hellfire option?

  8. Looking at your results (147 respondents currently) it seems clear that *WHEN* he is captured is not important. Most people have already decided whether to think his capture is staged for political gain or not.

  9. I was expecting the two ‘doesn’t matter WHEN’ options to be up at the top, but not by the margins that they are so far. I’m going to refrain commenting on these results until I have at least 100 non-‘doesn’t matter WHEN’ votes. At this rate, that will take some time.

  10. The discourse level has sunk so low that no matter when he might be captured, we will quickly get sick to death not only of ‘questions raised’ about the ‘timing’ of the capture. More importantly, I think we will be barraged with tiresome variations on ‘Is the ‘war on terror’ finished finally? Can we all go back to sleep now?’