I’ve mentioned Election Projection before. He uses a formula to incorporate poll results and adjust the vote in 2000 to reflect changes since then. Although he’s a Conservative, his formula seems to benefit the opposition to the incumbent slightly.
It’s interesting to note that last time I mentioned the site, less than a month ago, Bush was winning 300 electoral votes to 238. Now he’s losing 247 to 291.
I will post a little version of the map on my sidebar. Clicking it will take you to the site. Just something to keep an eye on as the year progresses.
Note: This projects what the result would be TODAY, not what it will be in November.
The light-colored states are very closely contested.