Socialists may have won even without Madrid bombings?

Socialists were ahead before attacks

Harry’s Place points out a UPI story from yesterday that claims the Socialist Labor Party in Spain had a slight lead over the incumbent Popular Party even before the train bombing on Thursday. If true, this might indicate that the Socialist victory doesn’t necessarily represent a massive, sudden cave-in to the terrorists.

First off, I wonder why this story didn’t reach us until yesterday. Maybe it was reported locally and didn’t register on the international radar, but Spain’s support for the campaign in Iraq made this election international news, and it seems to me that a poll showing the Socialists ahead only a few days before the election would have made the news somewhere. Polls showing John Kerry slightly ahead of President Bush are front-page material seven months before OUR election.

Also, I don’t know how comforted I would be if it is true that the Socialists might have won even without the bombings. That simply indicates that Spain was losing heart even before the horrific attacks on its people. They go from being a steadfast ally who fell victim to a violent, tragic messenger to not really being all that steadfast to begin with.

In any event, al Qaeda will certainly get the message that terrorism works wonders, whether they bombed those trains or not. They will see that a few well-placed civilian-killers can topple governments. That’s what they’ve believed all along, but lately they’ve been hounded by governments who refuse to give in. Whether the Socialists would have won anyway or not, our enemies will take the Spanish elections as a sign that terror is still an effective weapon.

Go check out the post. The comments are particularly interesting, and they include several from reader who claim to be Spanish citizens. (via Instapundit)


  1. Paul: I’m skeptical of this UPI story coming out *after the fact* about the poll showing the Socialists ahead. Do you have any links to contrary polls? (Not that I doubt you at all – I just would like to see what they have to say) And Buckethead is correct, which is sort of what I was getting at, when he says it doesn’t really matter why the Socialists won. The terrorists will chalk it up as a victory, and many of their potential followers will see it that way.