The latest shows Kerry leading the Electoral College 291-247 and the popular vote 50.9%-47.2%.
On the one hand, Kerry has chosen his running mate, and the resulting bounce has pushed him out to a 3.9% advantage against President Bush in head-to-head polling. Last week, Kerry was behind Bush by 1.8% head-to-head. If you’re looking for an actual number to quantify the “Edwards bounce,” The Blogging Caesar comes through for you. Kerry has realized a 5.7% improvement against Bush in the polls in the few days following his VP announcement.
On the other hand, the electorate is beginning to view both Bush’s job performance and the country’s overall direction in a better light. People are slowly becoming more positive about things. As a result, Bush’s job approval has climbed to 48.2%, 1.2% better than last week, and the right track numbers are 8.3% better. While these numbers are a definite improvement for Bush, they are still negative, and they aren’t enough to completely overcome Kerry’s VP bounce.
I truly believe that this month will be the last good one for Kerry, and that he will slowly drop a few points and electoral votes here and there, and possibly a lot if/when Bush makes announcements regarding Osama bin Laden, Iraqi WMDs, and/or a new running mate. Septemberish or so. I still don’t think it’s going to be all that close in November. We’ll see.