My Prediction

Not that it means anything, but here’s my prediction for the election.


Put together using OpinionJournal’s Electoral College Calculator and posted for the purpose of getting my prediction onto the record. Comment if you’d like. I’m not sure if I’ll respond at all.

One thing I’d like to note is that I’m not at all certain about Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I believe, and have been saying so for some time in the comments sections on other sites (though a search tells me I haven’t said so here) that at least two of these four states are going to go to Bush. I’ve selected the two smaller (MN and WI) ones even though my gut tells me that Michigan is more likely to go red than Minnesota.

Of course I don’t know anything more than anyone else, and I don’t even follow the polls terribly closely. This is just my guess.

As far as popular vote, I’m thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 52% Bush – 46% Kerry. Again, offered to get my prediction on the record, not for discussion purposes.

We’ll see.


  1. Buckethead: I choose not only to not respond, but I will in fact not even acknowledge your comment. Wait…oh dammit. I’m STILL not going to respond, though.

  2. MN before IA and NM? Possible, but the margins from 2000 suggest the opposite order. I predict 296 for Bush. That’s every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don’t trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV. Details and 2000 data at For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That’s 348. Which one first? The Horserace Blog’s custom poll aggregate (after throwing out polls whose methodology he rejects) has Bush ahead in PA, 47.53% to 46.87% with +/- 1.7% margin of error.