Posted for archival purposes

Oil guru says crude could hit $190 this winter

I have no idea what the odds of this happening are. I think they’ve got to be astoundingly long. Incredibly amazingly stupendously long.

Simply posting it here in case I need to refer to it again in the future at some point.


  1. Oil could also hit $500, or $30. Look at what the futures markets are saying for the best guesses. Of course, we could be looking at artificial scarcity if Thomas Gold is right – there might be hundreds of times more oil than we think if oil reservoirs are filled with hydrocarbons present when the earth was formed rather than created from used dinosaurs.

  2. While it may rise, $190 is a bit high. We will learn to carpool, masstransit, and otherthings well before it gets that bad. And even then, vegetable oil, tar oil and shale oil are cheaper by far than $190. Any calamity big enough to drive the price that high, and we have other more pressing problems.

  3. I can almost (well not really, but for the sake of argument) see a price spike that high. It couldn’t be permanent, because even at current prices, unutilized American wells are coming back into production because at the higher price, it’s cost effective. There’s still a lot of oil out there, and higher prices mean more effort focused on retrieving currently uneconomic oil. It would take a major, major disruption in supply to push oil that high.

  4. Does this mean it makes sense for me to buy some 208.197649 litre drums (haha, 55 gallon, just kidding) and fill them up with fuel? I heard higher octane fuel can lose its octane rating over time as the more volatile parts boil off. I suppose if one seals the drums sufficiently, and perhaps keeps some octane booster on hand, it might not be much of an issue.