Whoops April 30, 2008 Posted by Murdoc Economy grew by 0.6 percent in first quarter Apparently, someone missed the memo about the recession. It’s sad that a lot of folks are going to be quite disappointed in these numbers and will spend a lot of time arguing that blah blah blah. Updated: April 30, 2008 at 3:11 pm ◀ Rimfire AWB in Louisiana Friday Linkzookery – 02 May 2008 ▶ Comments Yeah, I’d rather have a job at McDonalds, anyway. Gotta admire a guy who can find a dark cloud in a silver lining. LOL! Honestly, I agree–..I think there are a lot of people with an agenda to push, one of their primary tactics is to harp on about a recession that isn’t. There are others who who’re too caught up in their personal financial travails to bother to check the facts, and listen to the recessionistas. Point O 6 growth though————–that’s pretty damn close to a recession————.even if it isn’t. All I have to do is look around the small town I live in to see the empty factories that used to be the three largest employers in town, the number of shuttered businesses on Main St, and the number of for sale signs in peoples lawns————.this is the WORST I’ve ever seen the economy, even if it isn’t really a recession————..yet. I’m pretty sure not all the home sales are due to just bad judgment or foolish borrowing——–.and not all the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared are due to unions and the passing of the industrial age, just as not all are gone on account of free trade agreements. It’s still pretty sad though to see the number of middle and retirement age people pushing brooms, stocking shelves, and slinging fries. As our astute resident socialist has observed——–if it was me——..I’d be pressed to appreciate being forced into such a wonderful job with a future. And, I may yet. With a trillion dollars/year coming into our economy from our creditors, why would anyone think GNP would decline? It’s going to suck when the bills come due, though. Bush will be making a quarter million a pop giving lectures in Dubai by then, so who gives a damn? I believe that’s what passes for patriotism today. No wonder our government doesn’t prosecute treason anymore. Funny how some people froth at the mouth when they percieve a constitutional ammendment is being breached, but when the US Constitution itself is disregarded it is met with a ‘ho hum’. ‘China’s economy saw a marked slow down in the first quarter as the U.S. credit crunch bit,’ Chen told a recent forum held in Nanning, capital of the southern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The economic growth slowed to 10.6 percent in the first quarter from 11.7 percent a year earlier, because of slower export growth and the worst winter in more than five decades. Last year, the economy expanded 11.9 percent, the fifth year of double digit growth. – China View Yeah, those protectionist trade policies are just killing their economy. I’ll bet they wish they were as enlightened as we are, then they could tout their 0.6% growth and there could be parties in the street. Whoo Hoo, we’re not in an official recession! Look at us, ain’t we something! What a bunch of crap. Well……………..there’s always Asst. Manager to look forward to. 🙁 Maybe it’s me, but I can’t get too excited about 0.6 growth. I echo the sentiment of flanker concerning his perception that things just aren’t right. I agree with dfens that China is on a tear. I know it is not exactly going to the moon, but two stories about China caught my eye today. The first concerned a $3.8 billion terminal twice the size of the Pentagon, and the second is a $1.7 billion, 22-mile bridge that just opened. That’s infrastructure spending on a massive scale that is only done by people who think they are going places and who have the bucks to fund it. China will be on the Moon long before we will be. They’ll have the first pick of the resources that we chose not to exploit too, industrial diamonds, platinum group metals, gold, copper. Easy pickings. We chose the space shuttle instead. It was more important to put money in the pocket of Rockwell than to have a space program for us. Once again, I’d like to state for the record that I’m not claiming that everything is GREAT. I’m not saying anyone should be ‘excited about 0.6% growth.’ I’m not saying that things are ‘right.’ What I’m saying is that once again the doomsayers are wrong. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So far, we’ve had ZERO consecutive quarters of contraction. Count ’em. Yet all we hear is recession recession recession. When the numbers don’t back it up, all we hear is blah blah blah. I’m calling bullshit, is all. What’s cool about this call of bullshit is that for all the blah blah blah that everyone is going to argue, it’s still just blah blah blah bullshit. You want to redefine ‘recession’ just because the numbers don’t back up your opinions? Go ahead. That’s an example of what I’m calling ‘blah blah blah.’ It’s like the idiots who tell me that because I don’t think that the campaign in Iraq is lost, I think everything in Iraq must be hunky dory. It’s like the idiots who tell me that because I think that some atheists use questionable science to attack believers, I support burning scientists at the stake. It’s like the idiots who say that because I’m skeptical of a lot of the global warming alarmists, I hate the planet. Either dense or pretending to be. I hope you’re right, because it’s really going to suck if you’re wrong. Right about what? About things not being horrible horrible horrible? I can only say it so many times but I guess I’ll try at least one more time. Things aren’t great. Many things are bad. A few things are really bad. Overall, the situation isn’t real good, and the potential is there to get pretty bad. But things aren’t as bad as a lot of people claim or think, and hyping how bad things are will actually contribute to making them bad. My particular point on this post was the word ‘recession.’ It is a fact that the traditional measure of recession has not been met. It hasn’t even been half-met. So hyping the recession we’re experiencing is not accurate and is, in fact, harmful. If the media hyped good times good times good times like they’ve been hyping recession, the actual numbers would be (a bit) better than they are because people would think things are good and act and spend likewise, rather than spend and act like we’re in the middle of a terrible recession because that’s all they’ve been told. I’m not saying that we should just hype good times to manipulate the economy, I’m saying that whatever is hyped has a real effect on the real situation and that the negative over-hyping of things that aren’t true is not helpful. So, again, don’t read that I think things aren’t as bad as many say and then claim that I think things are rosy. murdoc, you are correct in your definition of a recession. However, I wonder if 0.6% is accurate or is just an attempt to convince people times are not as bad as they think. Often times government figures on the economy are revised a couple of months down the road. It will be interesting to see if it happens this time. The economy grew by 0.6% of GDP. We borrowed 7%. You do the math. I don’t get a prize for being skeptical of the political spin. I care about the future of this country. I don’t think that’s bs. I think political spin, however, is. I am going to side with Dfens here. While the economy did ‘grow’, our rates of economic growth are recessed with respect to the growth of national debt, now almost 10 trillion U$Dl; combine that with heightened inflation/weak dollar relative to other powerhouse countries. Not good picture. Blah blah blah. Redefine recession if you want. If you get enough people to agree with you, then it’s a done deal. Until you do, please recognize that positive growth is not negative growth, and that expansion is not recession. In the meantime, for the seven bazillionth time, pointing out that positive growth is not negative growth does not necessarily equal ‘good picture.’ I really don’t know how else to say that. Just because I think the recession talk is being over-hyped doesn’t mean that I think everything is rosy. When I say ‘the recession talk is being over-hyped,’ what I’m getting at is that ‘the recession talk is being over-hyped.’ There’s no word games. No between-the-lines. No subtext. No ulterior agenda or secret messages for operatives. No ‘Wounds my heart with a monotonous languor.’ I guess I could try writing it in crayon or something. That would seem appropriate. Dfens is too harsh. Our economy is a multidemsional pie. It got slightly bigger in one dimension but shrunk in at least one other. Is the pie better? I’ll give Dfens credit on that one…at least he didn’t paraphrase the same old comment over again. He’s got about three or four things to say, one each on the economy, military procurement in general, the Air Force tanker specifically, and Republican politicians. He just posts them over and over again I think. At least this one showed that he probably isn’t just some computer program posting stuff based off of certain keywords in the post. It’s usually tough to be sure. As for the pie, it’s always expanding here and shrinking there. I’ll agree (for at least eleventeenth gajillionth time, though Dfense pretends he doesn’t notice and that I’m an extremist 180 degrees from him) that there are a number of troubling trends and that things are far from great. What I’m doing once again is pointing out that the alarmist cries have once again been proven wrong. Like the globalwarmingclimatechange crowd, a lot of solid science and troubling data has been being used by sensationalists very loudly, but things aren’t quite coming to pass like they swore up and down that they would. So it’s on to blah blah blah about how even though they were wrong it just proves how right they were all along blah blah blah. But I apparently can’t say ‘look, some of these predictions were wrong’ because suddenly Murdoc becomes an idiot who hates the environment and hopes that his kids don’t have a planet to live on when they grow up. When I point out that not only is that not what I said but that what I *did* say was accurate, they just blah blah blah louder and hope no one notices they’re not making any sense. And if someone does happen to notice, they just raise the volume. Today the headlines scream ‘recession’ when it isn’t. That could happen ten years in a row. Then, in a decade, if a recession does in fact begin, they’ll just all jump up and down about how they were right. Then, in a recession, they’ll start running headlines screaming about the ‘depression’ and whine when I point out that it’s a recession, not a depression. I was surprised by the 0.6% growth. I truly was expecting a negative number. So now, thanks to the wonderful media coverage and constructive commentary, I’m left wondering if I just got sucked in by all the bad press. If that’s the case, it makes me wonder how much else of what I think are ‘troubling’ trends are, in fact, just creations of whiners and liars. Murdoc, some of us understood what you were saying right from the start. But just some of us… Clearly your ass kissing toady deserves some crayons too. How do you know that’s not just me posting comments backing me up?