After 24 hours of apparently rapid advances and lopsided victories, the US forces are within 20 miles of southern Baghdad. The Baghdad and Medina Republican Guard divisions have been more or less destroyed, according to reports from the front, and other Iraqi units are desperately trying to move into defensive positions between the advancing American units and their capital. Not bad for an “operational pause” in a “quagmire.”

However, there are several things that don’t make sense to me.

  • Why didn’t the Republican Guards fall back into Baghdad on Day 2 when they realized how fast and far we were advancing? And, when they didn’t, why did they reposition during the big sand storm instead of using the cover as a chance to break contact?
  • Why the Hades didn’t they blow any bridges? Several, at least, were wired for destruction, but it doesn’t look like they destroyed a single major bridge. It almost looks as if they want us to advance.
  • Why haven’t they destroyed any of the dams? It’s obvious that they aren’t concerned about their own civilians. Did we maybe prevent them from doing so?
  • If they want us to advance, why? It’s very clear that they have no concern for fighting “fair”, whatever that means in a war. Do they have something special planned?
  • If they have and intend to use chemical weapons, why haven’t they done so already? If a chemical attack went well, that might have given the RG a chance to counter-attack or withdraw.
  • If they’re want to draw us into Baghdad, why are they throwing away those divisions? We aren’t finished killing them. Wouldn’t those troops have been more valuable for the street fighting?
  • If they’re planning to nerve gas us (along with everyone else) when we enter the city, wouldn’t the Republican Guards have kamikazed us? Wouldn’t that have been more honorable (or whatever) than sitting to be wiped out in place?

If something seems to good to be true, it usually is. During a chat today at lunch, KTLA expressed concern that “in two days we might be talking about event saying ‘holy shit, no wonder they did that.'” I agree.

We need to be prepared for a sudden turn of events. Remember, things weren’t as bad as they looked while we were “bogged down,” and things aren’t as good as they look today. This is war, and that live picture we’re tuned into is obscured by incredibly deceiving fog.