Instapundit posts on the non-recession recession, noting that the Fed revised their 2008 economic growth predictions up:
Are there economic issues, relating to high energy prices and idiotic loan portfolios? Yes. But does that constitute a recession? Nope.
As usual, I will state that the economy is not rosy and that there are storm clouds all around. Also as usual, commenters will ignore that bit and pretend that I said everything is rosy. Go ahead. My comment policy cautions against making a fool out of yourself, but I’ll make an exception and allow it in this case.
Meanwhile, Reynolds gets the same thing in an email:
The looming recession is not a fabrication of the election-focussed MSM. It is real, and it is scary…I worry that in 6 months, there is a very high probability you will regret your cavalier attitude towards significant weakening of the underpinnings of our economy–namely consumer spending, available credit and accessible liquidity.
To which Reynolds responds:
A future recession? Quite possibly. We’re overdue — and, of course, people who predict recession are bound to be right eventually. But a present recession — much less one over the past year — not so much. If there’s a recession next year, it won’t retroactively justify bogus claims of a recession last year.
This reminds me of a guy I knew in junior high who was a big baseball fan. We’d watch or listen to our beloved Minnesota Twins every evening, and in the first inning it would be something like this:
FRIEND: Kirby Puckett is going to hit a home run!
FRIEND: Tim Teufel up. He’s going to park it!
FRIEND: Herbie, Herbie. Herbie is taking it to the upper deck!
(He didn’t. End of inning.)
By the time we’d reached the fifth inning or so, my buddy had predicted approximately 18 home runs, none of which were accurate.
FRIEND: Here we go! Tom Brunansky is going downtown!
(Tom didn’t, in fact, go downtown.)
FRIEND: Hatcher is gonna knock one out of the park.
(Mr. Spalding did not leave the park.)
FRIEND: G-Man is due. Next swing of the bat is going to be a mammoth blast!
(Gary Gaetti would then hit a home run.)
FRIEND: See?!? See?!? I told you he would! I CALLED IT!!! You heard me SAY he was going to HIT a HOME RUN! I didn’t hear YOU predicting a homer! I KNEW he would!
And no amount of discussion would convince my buddy that his prediction was idiotic and that he was basically acting stupid. He’d just go “I said he would hit a home run and he did. I don’t see how you can say I didn’t predict it.”