During late February and early March, I ranted on and on about why I thought the war would/should start around March 28th due to moon conditions which bring a new moon on April 1. Rumsfeld dismissed my concerns, however, perhaps in hope of huge Iraqi surrenders facilitated by better visibility. Our night-fighting capabilities allow us to attack and kill before they even know we’re there, but that doesn’t really help them surrender. The massed surrenders didn’t happen, and now it appears that we will have to fight the Republican Guards.
Maybe we gambled on surrenders helped by bright moon visibility, and the fall-back plan was combat in new moon conditions if two weeks didn’t bring about a relatively combat-free Iraqi collapse.
Did I mention that the new moon is April 1st? Weird.