THE 38% SOLUTION 21:26 25 Mar 2003

According to this AP story, “just 38% of Americans felt the war was going well on Monday.” Not good. But if you read far enough and closely enough, you’ll see that 38% think that the war is going “very well.” Checking the source doesn’t give as clear of an answer as I’d like, but it appears to say that 45% say “very well”, 41% say “fairly well”, and 8% say “not well” over the past two days. That indicates to me that there is another group of people (probably in the 35-40% range for Monday alone) that say “fairly well.” More importantly, the group that says “not well” is probably in the 8-13% range. Yet the headline and write up work very hard to point out the drop in support. I don’t think that is very honest reporting, boys and girls. The same story with a headline of “Only 8% Think War Not Going Well” is ENTIRELY different. Or is it just me?

Update 15:47 25 Mar 2003

Clyde at The Command Post got hold of the raw numbers for the poll. It shows that people responding either “very well” or “fairly well” went from 85.9% on Sunday to 85.3% on Monday. A drop of 0.6% That’s a statistical difference that professionals refer to as the “jack shit variance.” GREAT WORK!