BAD MOON A-RISING 13:23 18 Mar 2003

It really looks like the main attack will occur within the next few days. Calling the UN inspectors out, the Tomahawk-armed ships transferring to the Red Sea from the Med, and the stepped-up No-Fly patrols/attacks all indicate war is imminent.

But maybe it’s misdirection. Tonight is the full moon. Although we’re certainly capable of launching our attack during a full moon, or at high noon for that matter, why would we choose to? We certainly seem to be setting the timetable, here. Unless there’s something big going on that the we don’t know about, or critical concern about the inviting targets all of our guys in Kuwait make, I still think waiting until the end of NEXT WEEK would be better.

The biggest single advantage our troops on the ground have over their troops on the ground is our night-fighting capability due to vision, communication, and navigation systems. It’s like boxing against a blindfolded opponent. Much of that advantage is lost when the moon is at its brightest.

I will remind everyone that surprise is not really possible. Although they won’t know the exact minute of the attack, no one will be caught off-guard. People and equipment that would be moved in the event of an attack have likely been moved already.

Maybe what we’re going to do is continuously feint for the next week or so. After all, how long can Iraqi defenders stay 100% focused and effective? If those guys are pulling 18 or 20 hour days at maximum effort, let them keep doing it for a while. At some point they are either going to have to stand down or become ineffective due to exhaustion and stress. Launch the air strikes next Wednesday or Thursday night. 24 hours and 4000 targets attacked later, send in the ground forces.

The president said war will come “at a time of our choosing.” I think we should choose to wait another week.