That said, if we drop about 200K troops we could “win” in about a year or two, but once we leave the Taliban would just march back in and take over.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTA1MDg3NmI2ZWMwMTBiMTNhNjhmYzRmYjNmYmIwZDY=&w=MQ==

The only thing that could save an Afghanistan war policy is strong leadership, especially from the President. A definite definition of victory has to be articulated, and the leadership of the nation has to unite behind that and stand firm, even in the face of setbacks and terrible casualties. And it has to be fought for a long time and to the end.

While in abstract most can agree that Af-pak policy is crucial for future global security, the political sell is the hard part, and it’s where I have little hope for the future here.

With the overthrow (even if temporary) of the Taliban, and the de facto destruction of Al Qaeda, the average American is not going to be in this one for much longer. Its a tough sell, and the present civilian leadership has not shown any inclination to take up the torch. The history of the last forty years in American policy don’t really make this look like a success story in the making. The Iraqi surge and its success are are the exception to the rest of the historical narrative.

I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it.

I didn’t say cleaning up the corruption and getting the Afghans on our side was possible, just necessary.

With all due respect, I fear the U.S. nor any other Western power will ever be able to transform a “stone-age”, 8th century culture into what we accept as a “civilized 21st century society.

Back in the late 60’s we thought Vietnam was the asshole of the world. HAH. Afghanistan makes the 1960’s Vietnam look like a lush paradise populated by Silicon valley types. I believe it has to do with several factors such as:

1) Afghanistan is a country where a dominant, very militaristic Islamic religion is the only game in town. Religion was not a factor in the Nam.

2) The country’s very barren inhospitable terrain and a non-existant centeral infrastructure. At least Vietnam had centers of civilization and fairly modern cities along with a climate and terrain that was much easier for humans to tolerate and inhabit than the Afghan roast/freeze dust bowls and horrific mountains that even goats find miserable.

3) No adherence to a “National Unity”. (It’s tribal) The North Vietnamese were highly decicated to their leader (Uncle Ho) and highly motivated to die for a united Vietnam.

So, the only American alternatives to countering the threat in Afghanistan are:

1) Pull out the grunts and use covert methods such as Predators and cruise missiles to keep the lid on the al-Quaeda cells. But that would be a very long and protracted process.

2) Carpet Nuke the entire country totally flat. But that would mean wiping out civilians as well as the bad guys. And the use of Nukes for any reason other than self defense is not realistic.

I figure Obama will eventually pull out and Afghanistan will revert back to an Islamic terrorist haven just like it was 15-years ago.

The Frogs failed in Vietnam and the U.S. jumped in.

The Ruskis failed in Afghanistan and the U.S. jumped in.

What’s next on the agenda?

Unless Obama forces the Afghans to clean up their corrupt government, police, and army, we are going to lose. We are spinning our wheels there without local support.

Maybe something like a crash plan to secure the few urban areas in Afghanistan that we can sort of control by recruiting and standing up police and ANA forces in those areas as rapidly as possible. Start a heavy bombing campaign in the wild and woolly Taliban areas that is to be wrapped up before “handing off” Afghanistan to those native forces. Get out as quickly as possible before things completely fall apart, and declare that we did our best. Something along those lines anyway.

Even if Obama has the strength and fortitude to to what needs to be done to get this won, his party doesn’t and never will. They are still the same party that cut off funding to South Vietnam and watched it fall to the north. And they are in charge of all branches of the federal government with a full head of steam to remake domestic policy in their image. Afghanistan is an annoying distraction to that dream.