Last week I pointed out a story which claimed that the Prince of Wales, the second of two new British aircraft carriers, could be switched to a helicopter-only commando carrier.

British defence equipment and support minister Quentin Davies called the report “complete rubbish.”

He also noted that the British have no intention to cut back on the number of F-35s they plan to purchase. This had been the reason cited for the downgrading of the carrier.

Army retakes fort in South Waziristan:

The Pakistani military said it has retaken control of the Ladha Fort in South Waziristan after heavy fighting in the region.

The Ladha Fort, which has been under Taliban control since August 2008, was retaken today, the military said. Back in July 2008, the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force responsible for security in Pakistan’s tribal areas, abandoned the Ladha Fort and all of the outposts in the Saam region in South Waziristan.

It’s tough to tell what’s really going on over there, but it sure would be a welcome sign if the Pakistani operations are really as successful as they’re claiming.

Go read the whole thing by Bill Roggio.

A guest post over at The Firearm Blog by an Australian Army Cadet who recently went through a very detailed simulator.

Murdoc needs one for the basement.

Cross-border insurgents flood Afghanistan

The expansion of Islamic extremist groups across the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is “the worst I’ve seen it,” with Afghan insurgents receiving help from Iranian operatives and “very possibly” freelancing Pakistani intelligence agents, as well as a small but growing number of “deadly” foreign fighters, said Maj. Gen. Mike Flynn, director of intelligence for Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s headquarters here.

“I wouldn’t say it’s out of control right now, but this is a California wildfire and we’re having to bring in firemen from New York,” said Flynn, who has been tracking Islamic extremism for at least eight years in postings as director of intelligence for Joint Task Force 180 (in Afghanistan), Joint Special Operations Command, Central Command and the Joint Staff.

The U.S. intelligence community estimates that 19,000 to 27,000 insurgents are operating in Afghanistan, a roughly tenfold increase from 2004’s estimate of 1,700 to 3,200

Flynn adds

“When it started to really show again, I believe, was probably somewhere between 2006 and 2007. And we just flat missed the signs. … [W]e were in the middle of that period of time when we were losing in Iraq, and I just think people weren’t paying attention enough, and certainly not listening to the leadership out here at that time.”

Obviously, some of the “people” who were “not listening” well enough were in the Bush administration, which supports the idea that the campaign in Iraq hurt the campaign in Afghanistan. But remember that Nancy Pelosi said, in mid-2005, the the war in Afghanistan was over.

Also, the deals Pakistan made with Taliban and associated groups in 2005-2006 must have had a huge impact. With relatively safe havens to retreat to, not only did the militants and terrorists get a chance to survive that they might not have had in Afghanistan, they got better opportunities to recruit more members. The serious problems that Pakistan’s inability/unwillingness to deal with the tribal areas near the Afghanistan border rarely get much coverage. In my humble opinion, those deals have cost us a lot.

This story has been in the news lately: US Troops Outnumber Taliban 12-1

First of all, US troops don’t outnumber the Taliban 12-1, it’s all NATO and Afghan forces combined that, according to this report, outnumber the Taliban fighters 12-1.

Secondly, as far as I can tell it’s just counting active Taliban militants, not any of the support network. So if they want to provide a meaningful number, it would be better to only count NATO and Afghan combatants.

Third, as the story does point out, two-thirds of the NATO/Afghan number are Afghan military and police, many of which are woefully under-trained and ill-equipped.

Finally, they’re probably not interested in a meaningful number, anyway. They’re probably looking to spread the idea that there are already so many troops in Afghanistan that it’s pointless to send more just because the military wants them.

For all the talk about “the Surge” in Iraq, it was the shift of tactics and the increasing capabilities and use of the Iraqi forces that made the largest difference.

As long as the Taliban types can keep running into Pakistan to rest and re-arm, things are going to be really tough no matter what the ratio is.

Not at all what happened
USS Ramage (DDG 61) firing a 5-inch gun in 2008.

Destroyer accidentally fires on Polish port

Three 7.62 rounds from an M240 machine gun equals “fired on Polish port.”

The crew of the destroyer Ramage was doing “routine maintenance” to the ship in the port of Gdynia when a sailor inadvertently fired the burst from one of the warship’s M240 machine guns, the official said.

Thankfully, no one was hurt.

But if you think this headline is bad, check out this Russian headline:

US destroyer shells Polish shore

Rooskie journalism hasn’t lost a step.

5.56 NATO Dimensions

Steve at The Firearm Blog notes British soldiers also complaining about 5.56mm NATO

In the Telegraph:

A survey of more than 50 servicemen who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan concluded that the 5.56mm calibre rounds used by British soldiers ‘tailed off’ after 300 metres yet half of all Helmand firefights are fought between 300 and 900 metres.

This seems to make sense and be perfectly reasonable. After all, our Special Forces found out pretty much the same thing in 2001. A lot of them switched to the heavier Mk 262 from the M855 green tip.

But then there’s:

Taliban marksmen use powerful 7.62mm ammo for their AK47 machine guns, according to a report of the study in The Sun.

If they’re trying to argue that AKs firing 7.62 Russian are outshooting guys with 5.56mm SA80 rifles, they’re going to have to do a lot of convincing. Since they use the term “machine gun”, maybe they mean the 7.62×54mm used in the PK-series. But then they’re arguing apples and oranges.

Yes, the 5.56 leaves some things to be desired. Particularly out of shorter barrels.

Yes, a heavier intermediate round such as the 6.8 SPC or the 6.5 Grendel would probably do better in a wider range of circumstances, particularly at longer ranges.

Yes, full size rounds like the 7.62×51 fired from a full-length rifle pack quite a wallop.

But let’s not whine about 5.56 at medium to long range and then extol the 7.62 Russian or medium machine gun rounds in the media.

Royal Navy could be forced to build aircraft carrier which doesn’t carry planes

Prince of Wales may go from carrier to commando ship if budget cuts cancel F-35 buys.

It is too late for the Navy to cancel the contract, but the carrier may have to be downgraded to a commando ship, with only helicopters on board to carry troops.

The move would save about £8.2billion from the defence budget.

They’re thinking that when the only fixed-wing capable carrier is in for refit that they’ll borrow a carrier from France.

This seems crazy.

UPDATE: A British official has called this report “complete rubbish.”

Another former Gitmo detainee killed in a shootout

On Oct. 13, a former Guantanamo detainee named Yousef Mohammed al Shihri was killed in a shootout at a checkpoint along the Saudi-Yemeni border. Al Shihri and his accomplices were stopped by Saudi security forces after their suspicious behavior drew attention.

Two of the travelers, including al Shihri, were reportedly dressed as women. Saudi security personnel decided to search the al Qaeda car and its passengers, but al Shihri and the others opened fire. Al Shihri and one other al Qaeda member were killed in the shootout, while a third was arrested. One Saudi security officer was also killed. [emphasis Murdoc's]

What a coward.

He was repatriated to Saudi Arabia in November 2007. It’s not clear to Murdoc exactly why, but fortunately things worked out in the end.

Via Powerline, which writes:

Instead of investigating those who extracted information from captured terrorists who had been unwilling to provide any, perhaps the Obama administration should investigate those who caused terrorists like al Shihri to be released so they resume their jihad.

Seems the Saudis, who lost a man in this shootout, would also want to know.

Not-So-Secure Border Initiative

The $3.7 billion spent so far has bought a patchwork of sub-par technology that often can’t tell a terrorist from a tumbleweed.

Cameras and radars mounted on tall poles can be so shaken by the wind and blinded by the rain that they don’t see clearly. The radars report intruders where there are none. The cameras have trouble seeing and then transmitting images back to human monitors.

When it was begun in 2006, the Secure Border Initiative – called SBInet – was supposed to be completed early this year. But by the time that due date rolled around, the estimated date of completion had slid out to 2016.

This whole issue has always been a joke. I’ve certainly never been convinced than anyone calling the shots is at all serious about actually securing the border.

The new Block 1 SBInet needs a 70% identification rate to be deemed acceptable. That means that three in ten illegal crossers can get through unseen and it’s good enough.

That’s not the definition of “good enough” that I’m familiar with.

It’s clear that no one currently in power is going to do anything meaningful about this. That means different people need to be in power.