Ares I and launch tower

Is NASA’s Ares doomed?

First was the discovery that it lacked sufficient power to lift astronauts in a state-of-the-art capsule into orbit. Then engineers found out that it might vibrate like a giant tuning fork, shaking its crew to death.

Now, in the latest setback to the Ares I, computer models show the ship could crash into its launch tower during liftoff.

Murdoc’s no rocket scientist, but he’s never been convinced that the SRB-based pogostick made sense.

The Space Shuttle is an albatross around the neck of American manned space flight.

I’ve had a number of discussions with those who are convinced that the Apollo moon landings were hoaxes over the past few years, and I’ve got to say that I’m unimpressed. And, after looking into the claims of the “experts” who are selling this story, I’m even less impressed.

To be honest, the 9/11 conspiracy theorists seem to be a lot more credible and have a lot more genuine supporting evidence than the moon landing hoax backers.

All that said, I am also not overly impressed with Mythbusters. It’s certainly entertaining, and it’s not devoid of science and investigation. But it’s basically a bunch of guys trying stuff. Cool, but I don’t usually put a whole lot of stock into their conclusions.

Still, I will check out this episode if I get a chance. It airs on August 27th.

Though I’ve long been a fan of the Navy’s anti-missile system, I’m pleased and relieved that this worked.

USS Lake Erie (CG 70)
under way in 1993.

And I’m always a fan of Navy says missile smashed wayward satellite headlines. If the Navy had missed, do you think the headline would have been Navy says missile missed wayward satellite, or Navy missile missed wayward satellite. It seems like people only “say” things when it’s good. As if the press is exercising some skepticism and waiting to see. If it’s bad news they pile on.

Anyway, there’s this:

The elaborate intercept may trigger worries from some international leaders, who could see it as a thinly disguised attempt to test an anti-satellite weapon — one that could take out other nation’s orbiting communications and spy spacecraft.

Within hours of the reported success, China said it was on the alert for possible harmful fallout from the shootdown and urged Washington to promptly release data on the action.

To which Mudoc says “China, STFU.”

They’re “on the alert” for debris that will re-enter the atmosphere from a very highly publicized test against an identified target with a valid reason to be shot down. Seems that they’ve forgotten their own unannounced test which left debris in orbit for everyone to play with for years to come.

And the Rooskies, of course, are onboard the concerned bandwagon as well. Someone asked me if I wasn’t worried about provoking the Russians with this test. Well, the Rooskies call our plans for a missile defense system in Eastern Europe an offensive threat, but call their own threats to target Ukraine, Poland, and the Czech Republic with nuclear missiles a defensive strategy.

I simply dismiss the complaints of China and Russia on this as windbag political rhetoric. Completely worthless.

Of course, lots of folks are going to worry about US saber rattling and side with the Commies. (Yes, I know the Rooskies aren’t Commies any more. They’re our friends again. Wink. Wink.)

This poor guy obviously wrote his story before last night’s satellite intercept: U.S. anti-missile plan is hopelessly flawed

He’s worried that we’re “sticking a finger in [Putin's] eye” with missile defense, mostly because it doesn’t work. He bases his claim on first-hand knowledge:

I have a bit of personal experience with anti-missile missiles, in Israel during the first Gulf War. The United States deployed a Patriot anti-missile battery just outside Tel Aviv, to counter Saddam Hussein’s Scud attacks. One night, I stood on a hotel balcony to watch as a Scud arced in from the east, trailing fire in its wake. Below me, a Patriot launched with a roar.

Moments later, the two missiles met high above the city, and the Patriot exploded, destroying the Scud, just as it was supposed to. But then the fiery debris from both missiles — including the Scud warhead — rained down on Tel Aviv and destroyed two homes. What did the Patriot accomplish?

He then says that the Airborne Laser system is far better than missile interceptors, then goes on to explain why that won’t work either. Though it’s tough to argue that he’s too far off base with his criticisms of the ABL, I find it interesting that his attitude is based on experience with early-gen Patriots in 1991 and a program that has already been all but canceled. If he argued against the spotty record and high cost of the land-based system, I could buy some of what he’s selling.

Missile defense is not an offensive weapon. Shooting down satellites can be, though, and this was a legitimate demonstration that our anti-missile system has the potential to do just that, at least for low-orbiting sats. Want to argue that having the capability to shoot down satellites is bad? Go ahead, though I disagree.

And don’t argue that it won’t work, which has been a major part of the anti-anti-missile defense argument for over 20 years.

Well done, guys.

UPDATE: In the comments, responding to the fact that potential enemies are unhappy with our test:

Well, that’s a sure sign you’re on the right track in my book.

UPDATE 2: Hah.

I guess I’ll weigh in on the issue of the plan to shoot down a failed satellite before it re-enters the atmosphere. I’ve got to admit I’m not really sure why some folks are getting so worked up about it. So much hand-wringing in the press and on the blogs. I just don’t get it.

I think it’s a decent opportunity to try something, to push the envelope, with new technology. It appears that the risk of new danger from a failed test is minimal, and that the upside of a success could be nice.

In any event, we will learn more about our anti-missile system and its capabilities, hopefully improving the chances of success should the system be called on to perform its mission in the future.

I predict that if the shoot-down fails, there will be a lot of laughing at the military and the missile defense system. And some folks are certain to whine about the expense. Just think how many schools we could build with all that money, and such.

Finally, it’s fairly ironic that the Rooskies and Chinese claim that this effort will be “the first step in a new, space-based phase of the arms race.” Nice.

Here’s a decent response:

The missile’s make, the general location of the launch vehicle and the target are all known — because the U.S. government has publicly stated these facts. Still, the Chinese and Russian governments are raising a fuss.

Contrast this operation with one that took place in January of last year, when Beijing surprised the world by shooting down one of its own weather satellites in a test of its antisatellite capabilities. Not only was the test unannounced, but it took China days to concede that it had happened. Because the satellite was destroyed at an altitude of approximately 850 kilometers, it left countless hazardous particles drifting in orbit that could harm future space flights.

I guess you could summarize that response to “shut up, jerks,” but the supporting details are always nice.

UPDATE: Of course, if dangerous materials blanket the planet and turn 98% of the world’s population into flesh-eating zombies, I’ll post a retraction.

Nabbed:

Federal agents arrested a Pentagon official and three other persons yesterday in a nationwide sweep of Chinese espionage agents.

A “nationwide sweep” got four. Do you think that’s all of them?

The good news is that some of the secrets they stole were related to the space shuttle. Hopefully they spend the next ten years trying to build one.

UPDATE: Meanwhile: Are we making it easy for China?

The Commerce Department recently designated five Chinese corporations as “vetted end-users” who can now buy restricted technology with military applications without obtaining export licenses from the U.S. government.

The notion is that these firms are civilian enterprises that can be trusted not to pass along information to other Chinese firms or agencies in the military sector. This notion is insane. It is the result of heavy lobbying by American firms who want to sell Beijing whatever it wants, wishing only to make a profit as China expands.

UPDATE: From the comments:

These guys (the Chinese) DO NOT view war as an extension of foreign policy by other means, but all other ventures, including commerce, as an extension of war by other means.

Emphasis at end Murdoc’s. I was discussing China recently, and I wish I had had this then.

UPDATE 2: More background on Dongfan “Greg” Chung, 72, a former employee of Rockwell and Boeing:

Chung, a native of China who is a naturalized United States citizen, held a Secret security clearance when he worked at Rockwell and Boeing on the Space Shuttle program. He retired from the company in 2002, but the next year he returned to Boeing as a contractor, a position he held until September 2006.

The indictment alleges that he took and concealed Boeing trade secrets relating to the Space Shuttle, the C-17 military transport aircraft and the Delta IV rocket. Chung allegedly obtained the materials for the benefit of the PRC.

The space shuttle Discovery blasted off from Pad 39A this morning for a 14-day mission to the International Space Station.

It will deliver Node 2 (dubbed ‘Harmony’), a hub that will be used to connect additional scientific modules in the future. Node 2 also contains additional life support equipment that will allow more than three people to live aboard the station. Harmony will go onto the hatch where the shuttle docking port is currently located, so the module will be placed onto a temporary port until the shuttle leaves. At that point, ISS astronauts will move the docking port, move Node 2 it into place using the station’s robotic arm, and attach the docking port to the end of the new module.

Also of particular import on this mission, STS-120, is the relocation of the P6 truss and its solar array to its permanent location on the port truss assembly outside of P5. It’s been in a temporary location atop the station since it was delivered in 2000.

I’ve long been a critic of both the Space Shuttle program and the International Space Station, but watching the construction progress is certainly exciting.

$25 Million in Prizes Is Offered for Trip to Moon

Big bucks for a private unmanned moon probe with rover:

The prize for reaching the moon and completing the basic tasks of roving and sending video and data will bring the winner $20 million, according to the contest rules. An additional $5 million would be awarded for other tasks that include roving more than 5,500 yards or sending back images of artifacts like lunar landers from the Apollo program.

This will NEVER work. NEVER EVER EVER. There is no way that anyone besides the BIG GOVERNMENT AGENCIES could do this. There’s no way the people working working for private entrepreneurs could ever possibly pull this off. It’s going to take NASA years to get back to the moon. No one else HAS A CHANCE!

Note to hopeful competitors: I am TAUNTING you! I am calling your skills into question. I am doubting your manhood. I don’t think you can do it. I am DARING you to prove me wrong!

Murdoc’s thinking of putting together a team for this, it’s so cool.

Via Instapundit. Click the pic for past lunar landing sites.

UPDATE: Brian Dunbar:

This does not solve the ‘it’s freaking expensive to get stuff to orbit’ problem. Unless the winning team solves that problem while they’re low-costing a solution to get a bot to the moon. Or it inspires someone else to work on the problem.

Until/unless the cost to orbit problem gets solved, everything is going to remain astoundingly expensive. Space elevators are one possible solution, but the fact remains that a huge percentage of the cost of any space mission remains the first couple hundred miles.

Mars Exploration Rover Status Report: Rovers Resume Driving

NASA.gov:

After six weeks of hunkering down during raging dust storms that limited solar power, both of NASA’s Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, have resumed driving.

The game is “collect as much solar energy as possible”. The rovers are suffering, but what do you expect more than three and half years into a three month mission?

Performed de-orbit burn at 11:25 ET. Scheduled to land at 12:32 ET.

All eyes will be on the tiles.

UPDATE: Thankfully, pics now show that the shuttle seems to be okay. Will be down in a couple of minutes.

UPDATE 2: Down and stopped. I still think that they should have tried the repair methods, though it’s tough to argue with success.

It will be interesting to see how the damaged section fared.

UPDATE 3: A commenter noted the expensive and never-used Shuttle launch pad at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It was originally built for the MOL program in the 1960s, for which it was also never used. More info and a bunch of pics at 1985: Space Shutle at Vandenberg.

Just communicated up to the astronauts less than a minute ago: No repair to the TPS (Thermal Protection System).

The Mission Management Team meeting just ended. An evening press conference will begin shortly.