Archive for March, 2003

FoxNews reports UK intel says that the air defense commander of Baghdad has been replaced because many of the missiles that have been fired at Allied aircraft have missed and fallen back into Baghdad.

Update 16:30 29 Mar 2003
Is it just me, or is working for Saddam a lot like working for Darth Vader?

On FoxNews, they’re saying we’ve fired 675 Tomahawk cruise missiles so far. On March 23, people were saying we’d already used over 1000. And we’re definitely using more each day. At the time, I couldn’t believe that we had used 1000. I hope the lower number is accurate.

Update 14:43 29 Mar 2003

I’ve been thinking about this. In the Pentagon press conference today, when asked about malfunctioning Tomahawk missiles, the general (I’m not sure who) said that he knew of 7 missiles that had failed and that they represented about 1% of all the missiles fired. If we really had fired 1000 by last Sunday, we’d probably be over 1400 by now, and the general probably wouldn’t have said about 1% if it really was about 0.5%. I think the 675 number is right. Just a hunch.

Update 15:08 29 Mar 2003

MSNBC just replayed that part of the interview. I still don’t know who the spokesman general was, but his exact words were “less than 1%.” So who knows?

You’ve heard of the three types of lies. They’re “lies,” “damn lies,” and “statistics.” I think that can be adapted to planning. “Plans” often don’t go as, um, planned. “Military plans,” I’m sure you’ve heard, don’t survive first contact with the enemy. “Diplomacy,” I feel, is the most unpredictable and vague of them all. With all the brouhaha about having too few troops in Iraq (with which I agree) and the claims that the military offensive is stalled (in which I don’t put quite so much faith), it’s hard to know what’s going on. The “Arab street” and many members of the media claim that the plan wasn’t a good one. Now, it may be that some of those making those claims actually know the plan, but I doubt it.

Neither do we know exactlty why the negotiations with Turkey failed to get us the access we wanted to pass the 4th Infantry Division through into northern Iraq. If the plan is indeed seriously flawed, my opinion is that the largest error was not getting that access. If we weren’t going to get it, we should have shifted the 4th ID to Kuwait immediately. Not only would they be able to relieve the embattled 3rd ID and/or Marines, but while they continued the battle, the relieved forces could secure the supply lines while they rested, regrouped, and rearmed. Not only that, but the ships could be on their way back to load more units instead of still waiting to unload the 4th ID.

While things certainly don’t appear to be going according to plans, we don’t know those plans. We have rapidly advanced, we have pinned many Republican Guards forces in place, and we have suffered amazingly light casualties. The biggest problem so far was the failure with Turkey.

Allied forces are going to “pause” for four to six days, according to Reuters. Time to rest, regroup, and rearm, I suppose. Is that enough time for the 4th ID to unload and advance to the battle? If these reports are genuine, why are they telling us? Is this just more fog? We’ll see.

A friend reminded me of this story to me this morning, and then it appears on Sgt. Stryker’s Daily Briefing. Wow.

Last year, after a creative general used unconventional means (motorcycle messengers, suicide boats, etc.) to battle US forces in a war game simulation, the game was stopped and the rules changed to prevent his unorthodox tactics. And now we’re facing an enemy that refuses to play by the rules. Despite rapid gains and suffering insignificant losses so far, it is clear that not everything has developed according to plan. No matter how things go over the next days and weeks, we need to learn lessons. We must not become our enemy to defeat him, but we need to understand him.

The 3rd ID around An Najaf. The 1st Marine Division working its way up the Tigris-Euphrates valley. The I Marine Expeditionary Force on the way to Al Kut. UK 1 Armor and Royal Marines in and around Basrah. The 101st Airborne setting up shop somewhere, probably west of An Najaf.

In the north, the 173rd Airborne hold an airfield while units of the 1st Infantry are airlifted in. II Marine Expeditionary Force in Jordan or far west Iraq? Where are 82nd Airborne paratroopers? Check out Bruse Rolston’s situation map.

Forces on both sides are set for a major engagement. Will the Republican Guard strike first? It doesn’t seem likely, but they act like they think they can win and may have an ace or two up their sleeve. Or will we take the battle to them? The troops and Marines have got to be exhausted. The 4th ID won’t enter the battle for at least a couple of weeks as it arrives in Kuwait. The forces in the north won’t be significant for some time, and they have a long way to go if they want to take part in the fighting around Baghdad. We’ll see.

Update 20:01 28 Mar 2003

FoxNews just reported that the 101st just made a deep strike against the Medina Division of the Republican Guard. That would a helicopter attack against Iraqi forces, especially tanks, probably far behind the front lines.

According to the FoxNews’ headline crawl, the Allies control over a third of Iraq’s territory and over 95% of its skis. That isn’t a typo. On my part, anyway. Skis. Cowabunga.

I’ve been asked why no lunch hour update today. Well, to be honest, there isn’t much that’s particularly noteworthy happening. To my knowledge, anyway. And, unlike 24/7/365 live news coverage, I feel no obligation to talk even if I haven’t got anything to say.

I listen to audiobooks during my thirty minute drive to and from work, and I’ve just finished a great one. It’s REPORT FROM GROUND ZERO by Dennis Smith. It’s an oral history of the WTC attacks on 9/11, told mostly from the perspective of firefighters and other emergency personnel that responded that morning. Particularly interesting are some of the accounts of rescue workers trapped in the wreckage after the collapse of the towers and the look into the operations and thinking of the FDNY.

The 6-CD audiobook I listened to is an abridgement, but the readers were so good and the performances so heartfelt that I still recommend it.

A huge airport, out of operation for over a decade, has been re-opened for business west of An Nasiriyah, Iraq. This should cut close to 200 miles off of the supply line from Kuwaiti airports, and will provide forward basing for some air operations, especially helicopter and unmanned drone flights. It will also make an inviting target for the irregular Iraqi forces still operating in the area.