Archive for March, 2003

On FoxNews, Shepard Smith just observed that the moon isn’t as full as it has been in recent nights. Thanks for the update.

Is the II Marine Expeditionary Force in Jordan? ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? This really doesn’t seem likely, but GlobalSecurity seems to think so, and they’ve been on top of our deployments all along. If they are, it is huge in the sense that we’ve maybe got forces about to reach the west of Iraq. It is even bigger in the sense that Jordan is allowing us to put them there. And did they fly over Israel from the Med to get there? If this is true, it is BIG. We’ll see.

1000 paratroopers of the 173rd Airborne Brigade dropped into northern Iraq and captured an airfield according to this report. The 173rd is an independent brigade not attached to a division, and it is based in Italy. I’ve been wondering why either they or the brigade of the 82nd Airborne in Kuwait hadn’t entered northern Iraq. Now they have.

I guess CNN said the airfield was seized to clear the way for tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. Somewhere else I read that it would be the 163rd Armored Brigade of the 1st Infantry Division. Actually, maybe they meant 1-63 Armor. Are we going FLY in M1 tanks? That could take forever. BIG RED ONE!

Update 23:34 26 Mar 2003

In a sudden reversal, Turkey announced it was not going to deploy troops into norhtern Iraq without “coordinating” with us. This WaPo article is mostly about the 173rd’s airdrop, but notice this near the middle:

After several days of mixed signals from Turkey’s political leaders, the chief of the Turkish armed forces said today that Turkey would coordinate any additional deployment of troops to northern Iraq with the United States, backing down from previous threats to send forces across the border over U.S. and Kurdish objections.

Thus endeth the possibility of the Great Turkish Landgrab. Or the Turk-Kurd War of ’03. And check out the article. It’s got great info on the jump. But I’m still not convinced that we’re going to be airlifting armor units in.

Update 08:12 27 Mar 2003

Link inserted in the update. It’s a good read.

According to a post on The Command Post, CNN has said that the Iraqi column supposedly on the move south of Baghdad contains 1000 armored vehicles. That doesn’t seem likely, but who knows? This is all sort of reminiscent of Germany’s Ardennes counter-offensive in December, 1944. There, a huge surprise attack by Nazi armor tore a huge bulge in the Allied front during bad weather that had grounded Allied air power. The Battle of the Bulge was long and bloody, but when it was over, Hitler’s army was wrecked.

If the Republican Guard is really on the move in numbers, they had better pray the storms keep up. Either way, there will be one hell of a fight if these reports are accurate. And in that 1944 battle, the 101st Airborne Division held the town of Bastogne against all comers although badly outnumbered, out of ammunition, and without warm-weather clothing through particularly bitter winter storms. So far, the 101st hasn’t had much to do. That could change quickly.

Update 16:07 26 Mar 2003

Everyone is jumping on the “Republican Guard on the Move” bandwagon. Can this really be possible? Between this move, and the maneuver of 120 armored vehicles out of Basrah in the south, what the hell are they up to? Do they really want to fight us in the open? At night?

Update 19:45 26 Mar 2003

Okay. CNN says it’s less than 1000 vehicles. Fog.

What’s going on in northern Iraq? I realize we were screwed when Turkey wouldn’t let us send the 4th ID through, but is there really nothing happening up there? A few missile attacks, a few Special Forces on the ground, and nothing more? I would have thought we’d get a force of some sort up there, like either the 173rd or 82nd airborne. Not enough to seriously threaten Baghdad, but enough to make the Iraqis watch their back. Now we’re waiting for the ships to transfer to Kuwait and offload the equipment before the 4th ID can join the fight. Two or three weeks, at least. Why didn’t they shift three weeks ago when it began to look like we wouldn’t get access? They could have followed 3rd ID, and passed through them now to attack Baghdad with a fresh division, and allow 3rd ID to secure the supply lines.

And what about out west? When we took those H2 and H3 airbases, I thought for sure that there’d be some MAJOR development out there. Maybe an air assault by the 101st. But not much has been reported out there, either. Maybe they are just SCUD hunting out there?

The big battle south of Baghdad hasn’t started yet, but the opponents seem to be feeling each other out. We apparently slaughtered a mixed force of RG and irregulars, but we lost two tanks to missiles. Some reports indicate that the Republican Guard may be shifting to fight the Marines instead of the 3rd ID. It seems to me that moving in the open away from Baghdad is basically a suicide mission, especially if the sand storms let up as predicted. But who knows? Those Marines are probably tired, but if they’re given a chance to fight a stand-up battle, I imagine they’re going to really let loose.

Could it be that we’ve got something special going on? Or are we really overextended and under-armored? Again, we don’t know what’s really going on. And although it feels frustrating, that’s a good thing.

Update 21:36 26 Mar 2003

Here’s a Reuters article along these lines. It goes on about the focus being on the south while the north and west are largely ignored. (Although this is changing with the 173rd arriving in the north and the possibility of Marines in Jordan.) It closes with:

Reuters reporters with the 3rd Infantry Division have been told for days their objective is the Medina Division around Najaf and Kerbala, while the 1st Marine Division is to engage the Baghdad Division in an arc south of the capital.

But the U.S. 101st Airborne is still waiting in Kuwait.

The Screaming Eagles usually make a splash when they arrive.

According to this AP story, “just 38% of Americans felt the war was going well on Monday.” Not good. But if you read far enough and closely enough, you’ll see that 38% think that the war is going “very well.” Checking the source doesn’t give as clear of an answer as I’d like, but it appears to say that 45% say “very well”, 41% say “fairly well”, and 8% say “not well” over the past two days. That indicates to me that there is another group of people (probably in the 35-40% range for Monday alone) that say “fairly well.” More importantly, the group that says “not well” is probably in the 8-13% range. Yet the headline and write up work very hard to point out the drop in support. I don’t think that is very honest reporting, boys and girls. The same story with a headline of “Only 8% Think War Not Going Well” is ENTIRELY different. Or is it just me?

Update 15:47 25 Mar 2003

Clyde at The Command Post got hold of the raw numbers for the poll. It shows that people responding either “very well” or “fairly well” went from 85.9% on Sunday to 85.3% on Monday. A drop of 0.6% That’s a statistical difference that professionals refer to as the “jack shit variance.” GREAT WORK!

The Air Force says it’s taken out the GPS jammers Iraq supposedly purchased from Russia. They were destroyed with JDAMs, I read elsewhere. Heh. JDAMs are GPS-guided.

Update 22:37 25 Mar 2003

I guess only one of the jammers was taken out with a JDAM. Still heh.

Everyone seems pretty upset over how long things are taking and the fact that some Iraqis are firing back. Take a look at these two maps and compare 4 days in 2003 to 4 days in 1991.

1991

In 1991 we were only concerned with liberating Kuwait. Of course we wanted to destroy as much of Iraq’s army as possible, and the “left hook” by VII Corps pretty much wrecked all the Republican Guards it encountered. XVIII Corps, the light and airmoble units, maneuvered even further around to the west to cut off retreat and reinforcement. But we didn’t have to go very far.

2003

In 2003 we’re concerned with Baghdad. Look at how far we’ve advanced with pretty light resistance. The Marines have had some troubles around An Nasiriyah, but they’ve encountered very little organized resistance. They might reach the outskirts of Baghdad tomorrow if things go well. The pace of this advance is INCREDIBLE. There’s no quagmire. The public has some pretty unrealistic expectations, and they’re encouraged to have them by the media.

The biggest reason for concern is the fact that, with the 101st Airborne reportedly committed to the coming battle around Baghdad, we’ve really got no reserve. A brigade of the 82nd Airborne or the 173rd Airborne Brigade, maybe, if they aren’t already committed to the north. The 4th Division’s equipment won’t start landing until next week. The coming battle is for all the marbles, and I’m not sure what Plan ‘B’ could possibly be.

Update 13:06 25 Mar 2003

A loyal reader has suggested that it is the administration, not the media, that is encouraging the public to have unrealistic expectations. While I’ll grant that Bush, Rumsfeld, et al, are always careful to put things into the most positive light they can, [but] they have always stressed that the war on terror and the war against Iraq are full of risk and that hard times will be encountered. I believe that they have been pretty frank about the situation on the ground.

Meanwhile, the media’s round-the-clock live coverage, although interesting in a “gee whiz – we can watch in real time” way, works hard to whip everyone up into a continuous frenzy. Every time an air raid siren sounds in Baghdad, every time advancing troops come under fire, and every time Allied POWs are shown on Arab TV the new commentators go NUTS. Huge explosions rocking Baghdad? Well, the war’s about over, folks. Marines taking fire at An Nasiriyah? That’s exactly what happened durning the Tet Offensive, isn’t it Joe? An Apache helicopter on the ground? Well, why use helicopters at all? Doesn’t that put troops at risk? A camouflaged factory? It must be the “smoking gun!” It’s like an hourly update on El Nino. There isn’t always something happening.

Important? Yes. Should Americans know what’s going on? Yes. But the constant references to “shock and awe” and the live videophone coverage gives an impression that something big is always happening and that things are taking far too long. The media played things up too much before the war started and now they’re filling hours of coverage with stupid questions and uninformed analysis. A lot like this page, in fact. But that’s not the administration’s fault.

The Brits may have found Scuds in Basrah. That doesn’t seem likely. What would Suds be doing in Basrah? Don’t you use long range ballistic missiles when you’re a long way from your target? Unless maybe they’re for shooting at Riyadh. More fog.

It looks like the main confrontation might be just hours away. The Scotsman has a great summary of the tactical situation. The 3rd Infantry Division is somewhere around Karbala, west of Baghdad. They’re facing the Media Division of the Republican Guard. There are reports that Marine units are approaching Al Kut on the Tigris. From there they could approach Baghdad from the southeast, but Al Kut is where chemical munitions were reportedly issued. Word is that the 101st Airborne has entered central Iraq somewhere, and the Screaming Ealges usually make dramatic entrances wherever they go. Tony Blair said this is the “crucial moment.” We’ll see. If things don’t go well, we don’t have much in reserve.